Metrics touted Final Four teams all year

The numbers have consistently supported the Final Four appearances of Duke, Houston, Florida, and Auburn. As a result, it’s no shock that these teams make up just the second group of all No. 1 seeds to advance to the NCAA Tournament’s final stage.

Since mid-February, the Blue Devils, Cougars, Gators, and Tigers have consistently occupied the top four spots in KenPom’s daily rankings. Their net efficiency ratings rank among the best ever recorded in the site’s 25+ years of analytics. Additionally, rankings from Bart Torvik and Evan Miyakawa further validated their dominance, reflecting how strong these teams have been from the start of the season through March Madness and now into the Final Four in San Antonio.

While slight differences exist in the rankings—Duke is No. 1 on KenPom and Miyakawa, while Houston leads Torvik’s list—the overall efficiency numbers remain elite. All four teams rank in the top 10 for offensive and defensive metrics, except for Florida’s adjusted defensive efficiency (No. 15 on Torvik).

Analyst and former Clemson player Terrence Oglesby highlighted a shared characteristic among these teams: versatile, skilled players capable of making shots, contributing to their exceptional efficiency on both ends of the court.

“Outside of these four, other teams relied more on hot streaks,” Oglesby said. “To win at this level, you need consistency on both offense and defense, and these teams have mastered that better than anyone.”

KenPom’s long-standing data further reinforces their dominance. Efficiency is measured by points scored or allowed per 100 possessions, eliminating tempo as a factor. Duke’s net efficiency rating of +39.62 is the second-highest ever recorded, trailing only the Blue Devils’ 1998-99 squad (+43.01).

Duke’s defensive prowess was on full display in their East Regional final win over Alabama. The Crimson Tide, fresh off a 113-point game with 25 three-pointers against BYU, struggled against Duke’s size and defensive versatility. Alabama managed just 8-for-32 from beyond the arc and scored only 65 points—their second-lowest total in two seasons.

“Duke is as good as any team we’ve seen this year,” Alabama coach Nate Oats remarked.

Houston (+36.49), Florida (+36.05), and Auburn (+35.25) also boast historically elite KenPom ratings. Only six teams in the site’s history have ever finished with a net efficiency of +35 or higher—three of them went on to win a national title.

Among this year’s Final Four, Duke, Houston, and Auburn have consistently ranked in KenPom’s top five. Florida, which started at No. 26, cracked the top 10 by November.

Florida coach Todd Golden emphasized the importance of depth and consistency, noting that his team never lost back-to-back games all season. “That’s why we’ve been good all year,” Golden said.

Since Feb. 12, Duke, Houston, Florida, and Auburn have occupied the top four spots in KenPom’s rankings. Auburn and Duke alone have spent nearly 90% of the season at No. 1.

Duke and Houston dominated conference play (19-1) and won their league tournaments, while Auburn claimed the SEC regular-season title and Florida won the SEC Tournament. The SEC, notably, sent a record 14 teams to the NCAA Tournament.

The last time all four No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four was in 2008—coincidentally also in San Antonio—with Kansas, Memphis, UCLA, and North Carolina.

This year, one of these teams is poised to join the sport’s all-time greats based on historical data.

“It’s the most dominant stretch by four teams I can recall,” Oglesby said. “It’s incredible to witness.”